Research & Publications

My research and analytical work spans peacebuilding, post-war political economy, security sector reform, and risk forecasting. This page lists selected publications and major institutional projects. Institutional reports are collective products; my role is noted where it was substantial.

Peer-reviewed and academic

Willcoxon, G.F. (2017). “Contention, Violence, and Stalemate in Post-War Libya.” Mediterranean Politics, 22(1), 91–114. Reprinted in A. Campana & C. Jourde (eds.), Islamism and Social Movements in North Africa, the Sahel and Beyond: Transregional and Local Perspectives (Routledge, 2018).

Willcoxon, N.E., & Willcoxon, G.F. (2011). “The Political Economy of Decline in California.” California Journal of Politics and Policy, 3(1).

Willcoxon, G.F. (2015). Peacebuilding, Political Order, and Post-War Risks. Doctoral dissertation, University of California, Berkeley.

Policy reports and institutional publications

World Bank, United Nations, and European Union (2025). Gaza and West Bank Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Co-lead.

UN Country Team in Afghanistan (2023). UN Strategic Framework for Afghanistan. Facilitator and contributor.

UN Country Team in Myanmar (2024). UN Transitional Cooperation Framework for Myanmar. Facilitator and contributor.

World Bank, United Nations, and European Union (2021). Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Co-lead.

UN ESCWA (2020). Trends and Impacts in Conflict Settings, No. 6: Developing a Risk-Assessment Framework for the Arab Region. Co-lead.

Nygård, H.M., & Willcoxon, G.F. (2019). Anticipating Risks in the Arab Region: A Machine Learning Approach. ESCWA Technical Paper. PDF

Willcoxon, G.F. (2019). Understanding Risks. ESCWA Technical Paper.

UN ESCWA (2018). Arab Governance Report III: Institutional Development in Post-Conflict Settings. Contributor.

Willcoxon, G.F. (2016). Political Transformation and Conflict: Post-War Risks in the Arab Region. ESCWA Technical Paper.

UN ESCWA (2016). Arab Governance Report II: Governance and Institutional Transformations in Conflict-Affected Arab Countries. Contributor.

UN ESCWA (2015). Trends and Impacts in Conflict Settings, Issue No. 4: Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region. Contributor.

Gartenstein-Ross, D., Barr, N., Willcoxon, G.F., & Basuni, N. (2015). The Crisis in North Africa: Implications for Europe and Options for EU Policymakers. Clingendael, Netherlands Institute of International Relations.

Chivvis, C.S., Oliker, O., Liepman, A., Connable, B., Willcoxon, G., & Young, W. (2013). Initial Thoughts on the Impact of the Iraq War on U.S. National Security Structures. RAND Corporation.

Willcoxon, G.F. (2012). The Security Sector After Qaddafi: Challenges for the Transition in Libya. RAND Corporation, WR-964-SRF.

Willcoxon, G.F., ed. (2006). Handbook on Terrorism and Organized Crime Law in Kosovo. Kosovo Law Centre, Pristina.

Public commentary

“Why do countries relapse into war? Here are three good predictors.” The Washington Post (Monkey Cage), March 2017.

“Some Reflections on the Revolution in Libya and on Avoiding a Recurrence of Civil War.” The Diplomatist, 2014.

“An Invitation to a Summit.” San Francisco Chronicle, 2007.

Working papers and work in progress

Chiodi, V., Grigoriadis, T., & Willcoxon, G.F. “Conflict, Inequality, and Development in the Arab Region.” Under review.

“Regimes, Rights, and Growth: Post-War Risks in the Arab Region since 1946.” In preparation.

“The Cyprus Negotiations and the United Nations.” In preparation.

“Civic Values, Extremism, and Conflict.” Paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association, 2019.